I’m in the middle of Ray Kurzweil’s new book, The Singularity is Near. You’ve probably seen coolmel ranting about this book as of late, and I’ve got to say there is a reason, cause this really is one of the best books I’ve read all year. I ran across some stuff in Chapter 5: GNR, which to me is really a mind-blowing speculation about the future of technology and the ways we’ll be impacted by this technology…
The first half of the twenty-first century will be characterized by three overlapping revolutions—in Genetics, Nanotechnology, and Robotics. … We are in the early stages of the “G” [Genetics/Biotech] revolution today. By understanding the information processes underlying life, we are starting to learn to reprogram our biology to achieve the virtual elimination of disease, dramatic expansion of human potential, and radical life extension. … The “N” [Nanotechnology] revolution will enable us to redesign and rebuild—molecule by molecule—our bodies and brains and the world with which we interact, going far beyond the limitations of biology. The most powerful impending revolution is “R” [Robotics/Strong AI]: human-level robots with their intelligence derived from our own but redesigned to far exceed human capabilities.
So what’s the bad news right? Sounds like some utopian rhetoric doesn’t it? Nope, complications arise from each of these advances.
While each revolution will solve the problems from earlier transformations, it will also introduce new perils. G will overcome the age-old difficulties of disease and aging but establish the potential for new bioengineered viral threats. Once N is fully developed we will be able to apply it to protect ourselves from all biological hazards, but it will create the possibility of its own self-replicating dangers, which will be far more powerful than anything biological. We can protect ourselves from these hazards with fully developed R, but what will protect us from pathological intelligence that exceeds our own? – Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, p 205-206
Well, it sure won’t be our weenie bodies… But no worries, there’s always Human Body 2.0!
December 21st, 2005 at 7:14 pm
It’s sounds like a must read. Bill Joy discussed this topic 5 years ago in Wired.
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html
Given how technology is progressing in our era, I think this will happen sooner rather than later, and the full impact is really tough to know. The great technological advances of the early 20th century brought about huge changes in society. Some of them good, some not so good.
Given the rate of change in technology, that seems to follow Moore’s Law in more than just the computer industry, I’m sure we will see these technologies in our lifetimes.
December 21st, 2005 at 10:51 pm
Things sure are moving fast, huh? For instance, you’re getting this comment from someone you might never otherwise have communicated with, by virtue of saying the word “Singularity.” New social interactions & networks that have never existed before are flickering into being. Very strange things are going to start happening.
December 22nd, 2005 at 6:56 am
Yes, Bill and Kurzweil are very strong friends. In fact according to Kurzweil, it was his own work, that inspired the article you sent me (thanks for the link by the way). He also says in the beginning of Singularity that during a recent conference, Future and Life, among all of the really top notch speakers, “it was primarily Bill Joy and I who took account of th exponential nature of the future, although Joy and I disagree on the iimport of these changes.” Seems as though Bill is a bit more cautious, and I can’t blame him. Some times I definitely get the feel that Kurzweil has a semi-utopian view, not to mention that he completely guts interiors…. All the same though, it’s an amazing book.
December 22nd, 2005 at 6:58 am
MUNGOJELLY! What a cool and funky name. Yes, who knew that one day I’d have people named mungojelly commenting on something called a “BLOG.” Weird for sure…