Comments on: Something to Consider… http://www.vincenthorn.com/2005/12/21/something-to-consider/ Buddhist Geek, Teacher, Explorer Fri, 30 Jul 2010 04:43:31 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Numinous Nonsense » The Blogosphere is Growing Exponentially! http://www.vincenthorn.com/2005/12/21/something-to-consider/comment-page-1/#comment-469 Numinous Nonsense » The Blogosphere is Growing Exponentially! Tue, 07 Feb 2006 17:57:46 +0000 http://www.vincenthorn.com/?p=52#comment-469 [...] According to the most recent State of the Blogosphere by David Sifry, CEO of Technorati, the blogosphere is currently doubling every 5 and a half months, with a total of 27.2 million blogs in existence. If that trend continues there will be nearly half a billion blogs in two years. Of course, exponential growth curves don’t always continue unabated, but I think it is possible that this one may for another two years. Afterall, half a billion is still only 1/13th of the world’s population. Then again how many people in the world have internet access and are able to create blogs, and even of those that do how many will want to. Will blogs become as ubiqitous as phones, or is there a point at which, in the next year or so, the blogosphere will become super-saturated? The key idea underlying the impending Singularity is that the pace of change of our human created technology is accelerating and its powers are expanding at an exponential pace. Expotential growth is deceptive. It starts out almost imperceptibly and then explodes with unexpected fury—unexpected, that is, if one does not take care to follow its trajectory. - Ray Kurzweil [...] [...] According to the most recent State of the Blogosphere by David Sifry, CEO of Technorati, the blogosphere is currently doubling every 5 and a half months, with a total of 27.2 million blogs in existence. If that trend continues there will be nearly half a billion blogs in two years. Of course, exponential growth curves don’t always continue unabated, but I think it is possible that this one may for another two years. Afterall, half a billion is still only 1/13th of the world’s population. Then again how many people in the world have internet access and are able to create blogs, and even of those that do how many will want to. Will blogs become as ubiqitous as phones, or is there a point at which, in the next year or so, the blogosphere will become super-saturated? The key idea underlying the impending Singularity is that the pace of change of our human created technology is accelerating and its powers are expanding at an exponential pace. Expotential growth is deceptive. It starts out almost imperceptibly and then explodes with unexpected fury—unexpected, that is, if one does not take care to follow its trajectory. – Ray Kurzweil [...]

]]> By: Vince http://www.vincenthorn.com/2005/12/21/something-to-consider/comment-page-1/#comment-468 Vince Thu, 22 Dec 2005 13:58:09 +0000 http://www.vincenthorn.com/?p=52#comment-468 MUNGOJELLY! What a cool and funky name. Yes, who knew that one day I'd have people named mungojelly commenting on something called a "BLOG." Weird for sure... MUNGOJELLY! What a cool and funky name. Yes, who knew that one day I’d have people named mungojelly commenting on something called a “BLOG.” Weird for sure…

]]> By: Vince http://www.vincenthorn.com/2005/12/21/something-to-consider/comment-page-1/#comment-467 Vince Thu, 22 Dec 2005 13:56:56 +0000 http://www.vincenthorn.com/?p=52#comment-467 Yes, Bill and Kurzweil are very strong friends. In fact according to Kurzweil, it was his own work, that inspired the article you sent me (thanks for the link by the way). He also says in the beginning of <i>Singularity</i> that during a recent conference, Future and Life, among all of the really top notch speakers, "it was primarily Bill Joy and I who took account of th exponential nature of the future, although Joy and I disagree on the iimport of these changes." Seems as though Bill is a bit more cautious, and I can't blame him. Some times I definitely get the feel that Kurzweil has a semi-utopian view, not to mention that he completely guts interiors.... All the same though, it's an amazing book. Yes, Bill and Kurzweil are very strong friends. In fact according to Kurzweil, it was his own work, that inspired the article you sent me (thanks for the link by the way). He also says in the beginning of Singularity that during a recent conference, Future and Life, among all of the really top notch speakers, “it was primarily Bill Joy and I who took account of th exponential nature of the future, although Joy and I disagree on the iimport of these changes.” Seems as though Bill is a bit more cautious, and I can’t blame him. Some times I definitely get the feel that Kurzweil has a semi-utopian view, not to mention that he completely guts interiors…. All the same though, it’s an amazing book.

]]> By: mungojelly http://www.vincenthorn.com/2005/12/21/something-to-consider/comment-page-1/#comment-466 mungojelly Thu, 22 Dec 2005 05:51:52 +0000 http://www.vincenthorn.com/?p=52#comment-466 Things sure are moving fast, huh? For instance, you're getting this comment from someone you might never otherwise have communicated with, by virtue of saying the word "Singularity." New social interactions & networks that have never existed before are flickering into being. Very strange things are going to start happening. Things sure are moving fast, huh? For instance, you’re getting this comment from someone you might never otherwise have communicated with, by virtue of saying the word “Singularity.” New social interactions & networks that have never existed before are flickering into being. Very strange things are going to start happening.

]]> By: Zataod http://www.vincenthorn.com/2005/12/21/something-to-consider/comment-page-1/#comment-465 Zataod Thu, 22 Dec 2005 02:14:23 +0000 http://www.vincenthorn.com/?p=52#comment-465 It's sounds like a must read. Bill Joy discussed this topic 5 years ago in Wired. http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html Given how technology is progressing in our era, I think this will happen sooner rather than later, and the full impact is really tough to know. The great technological advances of the early 20th century brought about huge changes in society. Some of them good, some not so good. Given the rate of change in technology, that seems to follow Moore's Law in more than just the computer industry, I'm sure we will see these technologies in our lifetimes. It’s sounds like a must read. Bill Joy discussed this topic 5 years ago in Wired.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html

Given how technology is progressing in our era, I think this will happen sooner rather than later, and the full impact is really tough to know. The great technological advances of the early 20th century brought about huge changes in society. Some of them good, some not so good.

Given the rate of change in technology, that seems to follow Moore’s Law in more than just the computer industry, I’m sure we will see these technologies in our lifetimes.

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